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13

Bucephalas

6yo Gelding · 9-0

Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f

#14

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 15/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13115/11C?BHA61 @ Sha Tin 07/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 116 · beat its mark07/12/2025 · OR 61 parC0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 1184/01C?BHA62 @ Sha Tin 01/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 115 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 62 parC0 @ Sha Tin 19/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 13519/02C?BHA58 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m Gd 134 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Sha Tin 19/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 56 par19/0456OR 56BHA56 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 54 · 7f GF 131 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 54 par12/0754OR 54projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA546th6th0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA5614th14th0
2026-04-19Sha TinBHA5614th14th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA5811th11th0
2026-02-19Sha Tin?12th12th0
2026-02-01Sha TinBHA6210th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/111/0219/0412/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
07/12/20255th12/137%69%+0.32
04/01/20268th15/261%46%-0.14
01/02/202610th33/10%31%+0.31
19/02/202612th14/126%15%-0.11
22/03/202611th20/10%23%+0.23
19/04/202614th10/147%0%-0.47
17/05/202614th33/10%0%0.00
12/07/20266th50/10%62%+0.62