11
Forza Leader
5yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 22/03/2026 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |