10
Genius Baby
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 77% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.22 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 77% | +0.35 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |