12
Golden Friendship
5yo Gelding · 8-5
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 28/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |