2
Juicy Dragon
5yo Gelding · 9-9
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |