4
Lucky Mcqueen
5yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |