7
Winning Money
6yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 23/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 45% | -0.41 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |