6
Young Arrow
6yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Lido Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 01/01/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 28/01/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |