12
Refusetobeenglish
5yo Gelding · 8-4
Happy Valley · Chung Hom Kok Handicap · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 07/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 55% | -0.30 |
| 25/02/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |