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5yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Chung Hom Kok Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 77% | +0.22 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 23/12/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 01/02/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |