5
Bunta Baby
6yo Gelding · 9-1
Happy Valley · Repulse Bay Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 10/12/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |