2
Candlelight Dinner
6yo Gelding · 9-7
Happy Valley · Repulse Bay Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/02/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |