12
Dragon Four Seas
6yo Gelding · 8-5
Happy Valley · Repulse Bay Handicap · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/10/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/12/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 04/01/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/05/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 07/06/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |