8
Notthesillyone
6yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Repulse Bay Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA66 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/01/2026 | 10th | 13/8 | 91% | 18% | -0.73 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/04/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |