11
Red Elegance
7yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Repulse Bay Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/01/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 27/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |