10
Awesome Fluke
7yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Shek O Handicap · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA91 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA91 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 14/01/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |