9
Californiatotality
6yo Gelding · 8-11
Happy Valley · Shek O Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA92 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA93 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA94 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA94 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 21/06/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |