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12

Le Zonda

4yo Gelding · 8-5

Happy Valley · Shek O Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA96 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 1m Goo 140 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 96 par18/0596OR 96BHA75 @ Sha Tin 25/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m2f Gd 121 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 75 parC0 @ Sha Tin 19/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 13119/02C?C0 @ Happy Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 129C0 @ Happy Valley 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m Gd 13015/04C?BHA72 @ Sha Tin 03/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m2f Yie 127 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 72 parC0 @ Happy Valley 13/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 12913/05C?3 @ Happy Valley 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 124C0 @ Happy Valley 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 1228/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Happy Valley?1st1st0
2026-06-10Happy Valley31st1st0
2026-05-13Happy Valley?5th5th0
2026-05-03Sha TinBHA726th6th0
2026-04-15Happy Valley?5th5th0
2026-03-11Happy Valley?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0511/0313/058/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
25/01/20266th14/126%44%+0.18
19/02/202614th8/158%0%-0.58
11/03/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
15/04/20265th12/137%60%+0.23
03/05/20266th18/15%50%+0.45
13/05/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
10/06/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
08/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34