2
Massive Sovereign
6yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Shek O Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA104 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sha Tin | BHA105 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Sha Tin | BHA107 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Sha Tin | BHA107 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-05-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 24/03/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/04/2024 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 26/05/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 03/11/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 13/07/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 30% | -0.52 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 58% | -0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |