1
Speed Dragon
7yo Gelding · 9-9
Happy Valley · Shek O Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA101 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA101 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 55% | -0.31 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |