6
Concho's Prayer
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |