IvyArcIvyArc
5

Dream Fast

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 53

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/07C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 52 par10/09C6OR 52C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 30 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 30 par1/10C6OR 30C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 36 · 6f 124 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 36 par3/06C9OR 36C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 33 · 1m70y Fas 124 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 33 par24/06C9OR 33C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 43 · 1m 124 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 43 par28/07C9OR 43C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 47 · 1m70y Slo 124 · below its mark11/08/2026 · OR 47 par11/08C8OR 47projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-06-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th6th−1
2025-10-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th8th+2
2025-09-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/073/0611/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20255th11/486%33%-0.52
10/09/202510th14/126%0%-0.26
01/10/202510th14/126%0%-0.26
03/06/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
24/06/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
28/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
11/08/20268th16/116%0%-0.16