3
Instinctually
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/07/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 06/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |