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8

Mi Sargento

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 59 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 59 par13/10C6OR 59C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 55 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 59 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 59 par15/04C9OR 59C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f Slo 124 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 61 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 par18/05C9OR 61C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 6f 121 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par15/06C8OR 60C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m 122 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f 122 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 61 par10/07C8OR 61projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-06-30Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th2nd+3
2026-05-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-05-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/105/0515/0610/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength48%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
29/10/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
15/04/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
05/05/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
18/05/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
04/06/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
15/06/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
30/06/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
10/07/20265th12/137%33%-0.04