Rosso Fuoco
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |