6
Crumbl
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -72.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 31/07/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |