3
Justiceontherail
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 50
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |