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Lexie's Lunar Rock

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f110y 1204/06C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 71 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 71 par7/07C6OR 71C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 120 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 70 par22/08C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-07-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th7th−1
2026-06-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/067/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -9.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
07/07/20266th15/261%55%-0.06
22/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14