6
Small Hollow
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-04-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |