4
Stephens Dream
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -23.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |