2
Tearin'up My Heart
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |