4
Mega Wich
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/11/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |