Pray For Victory

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 60

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-07-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	9th	−1	1.0
2026-07-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-23	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2025-11-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-11-06	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength61%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/09/2025	7th	40/1	0%	40%	+0.40
15/10/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	71%	-0.10
06/11/2025	3rd	4/1	79%	60%	-0.19
13/11/2025	5th	40/1	0%	64%	+0.64
23/06/2026	6th	14/1	26%	17%	-0.10
08/07/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	91%	+0.08
27/07/2026	8th	11/4	86%	30%	-0.56
06/08/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18