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3

Couldyoubeloved

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 85

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turfway Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 86 par27/12C8OR 86C8 @ Turfway Park 10/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Turfway Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 125 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 81 par27/02C8OR 81C8 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 6f110y 124 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Keeneland 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 77 par15/04C8OR 77C8 @ Churchill Downs 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m110y Slo 124 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 76 · 6f 123 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 76 par17/06C8OR 76C8 @ Ellis Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 74 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 80 par27/08C7OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-07-10Ellis Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-17Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2026-05-16Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2026-04-15Keeneland?4th5th−1
2026-03-21Turfway Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1221/0317/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20252nd8/158%91%+0.33
10/01/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
27/02/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
21/03/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
15/04/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
16/05/20265th11/486%20%-0.66
17/06/20265th7/282%0%-0.82
10/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
27/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08