8
Don't Look Back
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |