Hidden Recipe
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 23/09/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/02/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/02/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 21/03/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |