IvyArcIvyArc
2

Lady Blake

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 88

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Hawthorne 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 84 par9/10C5OR 84C8 @ Churchill Downs 06/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Turfway Park 16/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 82 · 1m 121 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 82 par16/01C8OR 82C8 @ Turfway Park 19/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m 125 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Turfway Park 26/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m 125 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 75 par26/03C8OR 75C8 @ Churchill Downs 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 82 par6/06C8OR 82C8 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m110y Yie 123 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 88 par24/08C8OR 88projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-07-25Colonial Downs?7th8th−1
2026-06-06Churchill Downs?7th8th−1
2026-04-25Churchill Downs?6th7th−1
2026-03-26Turfway Park?6th7th−1
2026-02-19Turfway Park?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1019/026/0624/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th15/261%43%-0.18
06/11/20257th14/126%33%+0.07
16/01/20262nd9/276%75%-0.01
19/02/20265th8/158%43%-0.15
26/03/20266th10/382%50%-0.32
25/04/20266th40/10%29%+0.29
06/06/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
25/07/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
24/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18