Polka Polenta
8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/08/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/02/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |