4
Crazy Legs Mike
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 48
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |