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Favorite Star
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 57
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |