5
Barca Billy
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-11-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/04/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 14/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |