9
El Michoacano
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 10/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |