6
Jailhouse Justice
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |