7
Shiesty To Chase
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 23/01/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 38% | -0.52 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |