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8

Stranger's Church

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m70y 118 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 85 par16/09C8OR 85C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y Slo 119 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 83 par27/10C5OR 83C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m110y 119 · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 85 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 88 par22/04C5OR 88C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 91 · 5f110y Slo 122 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 91 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 92 par24/06C5OR 92C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 87 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 85 par13/08C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-06-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-04-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2025-11-12Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0912/1124/0613/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
08/10/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
27/10/20255th13/891%43%-0.49
12/11/20254th11/271%70%-0.01
22/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
25/05/20265th3/184%43%-0.41
24/06/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
27/07/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
13/08/20262nd13/266%86%+0.20