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7

Cawthorne Cracker

7yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 79

Kelso · RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 25y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless for nearly 2 years but after a couple of less-than-convincing outings over fences, he briefly looked as if he was about to end that streak before being outstayed when runner-up in 11-runner handicap hurdle (15/2) at Sedgefield (2½m, good) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Worcester 12/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 149 · below its mark12/06/2025 · OR 86 par12/065OR 865 @ Uttoxeter 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m7f214y Gd 151 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 85 · 2m190y Goo 154 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 85 par30/105OR 855 @ Market Rasen 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 84 · 2m1f43y Goo 152 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Stratford 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 82 · 2m213y Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 82 par17/054OR 825 @ Market Rasen 28/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 2m1f43y Gd 150 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 81 · 2m110y Gd 150 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 81 par17/065OR 815 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 2m1f61y Gd 153 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 par5 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 78 · 2m3f123y Gd 146 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 78 par4/095OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee52nd2nd0
2026-07-18Cartmel56th6th0
2026-06-17Worcester55th5th0
2026-05-28Market Rasen53rd3rd0
2026-05-17Stratford45th4th+1
2026-04-05Market Rasen53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/065/0417/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20255th14/126%56%+0.29
11/09/20252nd7/163%86%+0.23
30/10/20255th8/158%60%+0.02
05/04/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
17/05/20265th3/184%20%-0.64
28/05/20263rd5/174%50%-0.24
17/06/20265th9/276%50%-0.26
18/07/20266th9/153%29%-0.24
04/09/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29