Fine Point
5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 95
Kelso · RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 25y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sedgefield | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 18/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 25/07/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |