4
Hijo De La Luna
6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 86
Kelso · RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 25y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 22% | -0.20 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |