8
Ivynator
8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 72
Kelso · RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 25y
#8
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Kelso | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-08 | Perth | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-01 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2024 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2024 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 31/10/2024 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 08/06/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 12th | 125/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |