Struth
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 89
Kelso · RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 25y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 24/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |